Monday, December 21, 2009

another week another bore




Well start of a new week and all is the same as last week. By this I mean that we should see more of the indexes moving within a range and not a whole lot of anything more.
the Oracle


Thursday, December 17, 2009

Dollar Index


For those that get the paid members only newsletter, you would have noticed that I have been talking about the correlation between the US Dollar Index and the SP500 Equity Index.

We have seen the dollar index trend line being broken in the last couple of days. As you can see from the attached chart the correlation has been right on the money when it comes to marking major turning points in the Equity Indexes over the last 18 months.

Could this be the start of a major correction in the Equity Indexes or is it setting up for another move long out of the Flag pattern that exists on the Indexes. Only time will tell....


Its broken the Level


Keep an eye on the US Dollar in the coming days. The inverse relationship between the DXY dollar Index and the Equity Markets have been uncanny of late.

Here's a chart on Cable (GBPUSD). As you can see , its a very clear heads and shoulders pattern and we have just had a break below the 1.6200 level on the downside for a flag pattern.

If we see a large scale move back towards the US Dollar it could see movements to the downside in Equity markets.




Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Overnight indexes

DOW down, FTSE down, CAC flat and same for the DAX

Today here looks to be one of sitting on our hands and waiting for tomorrow, unless of course your someone who likes to short. Then maybe get ready because I reckon its a down day ahead here

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Cable

Keep a close eye on Cable (GBPUSD) in the Forex markets. Its been consolidating now for about a week and we should be starting to see a decent move out of this level.

The 1.6330 level has some serious resistance there and a decent break should see it move pretty nicely.

Keep an eye in the Equity markets for some of the financials. I think you should start to see some of the financials move once the capital raisings in Citibank and Wells Fargo are complete and the TARP money repaid.




The Oracle is now on Twitter as tradingoracle if you wanna tag along

the gorgon project (ala Wiki)




For those that don't know what the Gorgon project is. This is from Wikipedia

The Gorgon gas project is a proposed petroleum project in Western Australia, involving the development of the Greater Gorgon gas fields, subsea gas-gathering infrastructure, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant on Barrow Island. It will become Australia's third LNG export development.


'Greater Gorgon' refers to a grouping of several gas fields, including Gorgon, Chandon, Geryon, Orthrus, Maenad, Eurytion, Urania, Chrysaor, Dionysus, Jansz/Io, and West Tryal Rocks, situated in the Barrow sub-basin of the Carnarvon Basin) - an area commonly referred to as the North West Shelf. The Gorgon field is centered about 130 kilometres (81 mi) off the north-west coast of Western Australia, where the water depth is approximately 200 metres (660 ft). Other fields in the group lie to the north, such as Jansz-Io, which covers an area of 2,000 square kilometres (770 sq mi), in a water depth of 1,300 metres (4,300 ft).

Barrow Island lies off the Pilbara coast, 85 kilometres (53 mi) north-north-east of Onslow and 140 kilometres (90 mi) west of Karratha. The largest of a group of islands which include the Montebello and Lowendal Islands, it is 25 kilometres (16 mi) long and 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) wide, covering 235 square kilometres (91 sq mi).

The gas fields, 200 km from the coast are said to contain 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and may have a lifespan of 60 years. The gas is worth A$500 billion at current market prices and the market price will keep increasing over the next few years.


courtesy of bloomberg - Chevron finds more gas off of Gorgon project




told you the miners and oilers had too much to lose if we have to go ultra green. This in from bloomberg;

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy producer, made a gas discovery off the coast of Western Australia that may help expand its A$43 billion ($39 billion) Gorgon liquefied natural gas project.


Chevron found gas at its Satyr-1 well in the Carnarvon Basin, following a discovery in the area in October, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement. Chevron said it’s investing “heavily” in Australian exploration.

“There has been a run of very good exploration success in the Carnarvon and Browse Basins” off the northwest coast, Graeme Bethune, a consultant at EnergyQuest in Adelaide, said by phone today. “I would expect discovery rates next year to be at least as good as this year.”

The Gorgon venture with partners Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc is the largest of more than a dozen planned LNG projects in Australia seeking to tap Asian demand for less-polluting alternatives to coal. Gorgon, set to start exporting LNG in 2014 from three five-million-metric-tons-a-year processing units, may add a fourth and fifth train at the Barrow Island site, Chevron said in September.

Satyr, drilled to 4,560 meters, found 130 meters of so- called “net gas pay,” the U.S. oil producer said in its statement. Chevron said in October it discovered gas at its Achilles-1 well, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) northwest of Onslow, and was spending “hundreds of millions of dollars” on Australian exploration.

Chevron said Dec. 10 that it plans 2010 spending of $17.3 billion on exploration, production and natural gas projects, including the Gorgon and Wheatstone ventures in Australia.

Gorgon and Wheatstone

"We are investing heavily in Australia on exploration, appraisal and seismic programs,” Roy Krzywosinski, Chevron Australia’s managing director, said in a statement today. The drilling will underpin Gorgon and Wheatstone, he said.

The Satyr-1 well is in a permit area operated by Chevron. Shell and Exxon also have interests, it said. Gas for Gorgon will be piped to Barrow Island for processing into liquid form from fields 130 to 200 kilometers (81 to 124 miles) off the coast, according to the project’s Web site.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer and Chevron’s rival in securing gas supplies in the state, has started a drilling campaign to find fuel to support an expansion of its A$13 billion Pluto LNG project in Western Australia.

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy producer, made a gas discovery off the coast of Western Australia that may help expand its A$43 billion ($39 billion) Gorgon liquefied natural gas project.


Chevron found gas at its Satyr-1 well in the Carnarvon Basin, following a discovery in the area in October, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement. Chevron said it’s investing “heavily” in Australian exploration.

“There has been a run of very good exploration success in the Carnarvon and Browse Basins” off the northwest coast, Graeme Bethune, a consultant at EnergyQuest in Adelaide, said by phone today. “I would expect discovery rates next year to be at least as good as this year.”

The Gorgon venture with partners Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc is the largest of more than a dozen planned LNG projects in Australia seeking to tap Asian demand for less-polluting alternatives to coal. Gorgon, set to start exporting LNG in 2014 from three five-million-metric-tons-a-year processing units, may add a fourth and fifth train at the Barrow Island site, Chevron said in September.

Satyr, drilled to 4,560 meters, found 130 meters of so- called “net gas pay,” the U.S. oil producer said in its statement. Chevron said in October it discovered gas at its Achilles-1 well, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) northwest of Onslow, and was spending “hundreds of millions of dollars” on Australian exploration.

Chevron said Dec. 10 that it plans 2010 spending of $17.3 billion on exploration, production and natural gas projects, including the Gorgon and Wheatstone ventures in Australia.

Gorgon and Wheatstone

“We are investing heavily in Australia on exploration, appraisal and seismic programs,” Roy Krzywosinski, Chevron Australia’s managing director, said in a statement today. The drilling will underpin Gorgon and Wheatstone, he said.

The Satyr-1 well is in a permit area operated by Chevron. Shell and Exxon also have interests, it said. Gas for Gorgon will be piped to Barrow Island for processing into liquid form from fields 130 to 200 kilometers (81 to 124 miles) off the coast, according to the project’s Web site.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer and Chevron’s rival in securing gas supplies in the state, has started a drilling campaign to find fuel to support an expansion of its A$13 billion Pluto LNG project in Western Australia.





Well looks like Copenhagen is going to be a very costly waste of time with the African Nations walking out on the pretext that the wealthy nations didn't want to play fair. Well blow me down with a feather, did the Africans really think that the others would. I'm sorry but the big multinational oilers and miners have got way too much to lose and way too much clout to let that happen. So from a markets point of view it is just another day like any other. Watch this space though because whether we like it or not something does have to happen, it isn't going to happen this time but it will happen. Yea I know you've heard that before. So watch the indexes and particularly gold because it is falling against the US dollar and that same dollar is the one that has the most to lose when the climate debate starts to go onto the boil.

The Oracle

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Congress blasts Bernanke




Now you all know the Oracle is a bit of a conspiracy theorist, and you also know that I love The Daily Reckoning blog and newsletter. So I couldn't miss out on sharing this little snippet with you could I?

From The Daily Reckoning a bit of light reading....

"You are the definition of a moral hazard. Your Fed has become the creature from Jekyll Island"



That was Senator Jim Bunning's comment to Ben Bernanke during the hearing into Bernanke's renomination to the US Federal Reserve.


Who would have thought there are members of Congress willing to say it as it is to Ben Bernanke?


But I'm sure you've read about it in The Age or the Australian Financial Review?


No, unfortunately not.


Because the mainstream press wouldn't want people thinking bad things about the Fed Reserve. They are here to save us. They are the cavalry riding over the hilltops to our rescue.


The myth of the purity of the Federal Reserve's motives is jealously guarded by the mainstream press. Any dissenting voices are quickly dismissed as cranks and extremists.


Currently Senator Ron Paul (One of the rare politicians in America with a brain and a conscience) has been trying to get a bill passed that would audit the Fed and attempt to find out exactly what it is holding on its balance sheet.


In fact he has been trying for 30 years, but finally after the shenanigans of the Fed over the past year, the other members of Congress have finally woken up and agree that something needs to be done.


Of course this is being resisted by Bernanke. He says if Congress interferes in the business of the Fed Reserve it will jeopardise their independence on monetary policy.


That one line is usually enough to shut people up so the Fed can return to their game of printing money and bailing out their banking masters.


It still amazes me how most people have no idea about what money is or how it's created. They assume it's too complex to understand and therefore they believe what they're told.


So much so that you can watch a video here of people in America signing a petition that asks the Fed to deliberately raise the inflation rate to 100% for the next 5 years to cause hyperinflation!


This is the level of ignorance we're dealing with. Every word that Ben Bernanke speaks is believed and reported as gospel. But it's not surprising the population has that attitude when they rely so much on the mainstream press.


I was astonished last week to see that CNBC hosted their 'Squawk Box' show direct from the Cash Room of the US Treasury. So much for an independent media.


Was that CNBCs reward for toeing the line on the merit of the bail outs and the actions of the Fed?


No dissenting views are allowed. If there are moments such as the tirade from Senator Jim Bunning on Bernanke last week, then it is underreported. Or at the very least reported in a way that makes Senator Bunning look like an extremist with the wrong point of view.


All of this while markets around the world move to the beat of the Fed's drum.


The carry trade is in full swing and the Fed is more than happy to feed it.


There is no doubt that the historic move in markets this year can be put down to the free money being doled out by the Fed to its banking buddies.


I've watched markets for sixteen years and I've rarely seen such a sustained explosive rally as that of the last nine months.


Trust me, this is not the behaviour of a free market.


This is a market being managed by unseen hands. Think about this - Hong Kong property prices are up 30% this year, with those in the luxury sector up by about 40% according to Marketwatch.


In my view this is the result of a flood of US Dollars looking for a home.


The Chinese banks were forced to lend out more than 9 Trillion yuan ($1.5 Trillion) last year, an amount equal to 27% of the country's GDP! China Securities Journal has predicted that new bank lending may fall as much as 30% in 2010 to around 6-7 Trillion yuan.


What affect will that have on Chinese demand?


They've already caused a bubble in property development and there are shopping centres sitting empty with no tenants and no customers.


What trick can they pull out of their sleeves this year to create some phantom demand?

For those with a head for this sort of stuff, and remember when it comes to trading you want to ensure you have all the news and not just the news they want you to have...

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/





Friday, December 4, 2009

Who would have believed it Commbank raising rates by 37 basis points. Fence sitters!!!!



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on that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.

Thursday, December 3, 2009




Well sometimes you just have to look at yesterday to know what is going to happen today. Big up day yesterday people taking the money off of the table today. Seems to be the flavour of the year doesn't it. for every Bull there is a equal and opposite Bear to pull us back. I can't wait for one or the other to take control of all of this, so we can get it over and done with and get on with making money.

the Oracle

Ronin Asset Management Pty Ltd trading as Cashflow Trader is an Authorised Representative (No. 333209) of Sonray Capital Markets Pty Ltd AFSL 231151 and we do not endorse or vouch for the accuracy or authenticity of postings and no responsibility is accepted for any opinion expressed or for any error or omission that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.