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2010-06-01T16:26:00.002+10:00

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Latest Dow Jones Chart

2010-05-18T08:59:00.002+10:00

Last nights movement has seen the Dow Jones bounced off the 50% retracement level during the last session.

The resistance level that has become support over the last couple of weeks came in on high volume and we have now the 3rd day down. The next couple of days will be crucial for the future direction of the indexes as a whole. If we get a move to the long side over the course of the next couple of days then we would expect this market to continue this current bull market to continue.

Will update over the course of the next couple of days as too future direction of the markets.

What happened to cause 1000 point drop in the Dow?

2010-05-17T14:10:00.002+10:00

What caused the Dow Jones Industrial average to fall 1010 points or close to 10% during last Thursday’s session?

Like most instances it appears that it wasn’t caused by one single factor rather a combination that culminated in a wild roller coaster ride that for 20 minutes caused the fastest and largest percentage drop since the 1987 stock market crash.

Global markets have been transfixed with the situation with Greece’s sovereign debt issue and the worry that this will flow into other areas of Europe and consequently the global. This uncertainty has driven the markets down for the last couple of weeks but with all this uncertainty and fear in the markets the Dow Jones was down just on 4% from its highs prior to last Thursday.

At 11am the Dow Jones Industrial Index was down 60 points with the selling volume being heavier than normal. The number of stocks that fell without first moving up was at its highest level since the terror attacks of September 11.

It is now 2pm and the Dow Jones is down just over 200 points and all financial markets where feeling the strain. European equity markets were down solidly from the spillover from the Greek Debt Crisis. The Euro and Yen were both down solidly against the US Dollar and the bond markets were solidly sold off.

Shortly after 2.15pm in Santa Monica, California, hedge fund Universa Investments that manages close to $4 Billion USD, placed a trade for 50,000 S&P500 Put Contracts worth approximately $7.5 Million. Normally such an order wouldn’t put a ripple into the market, but on the Chicago Board of Exchange on this particular day, this was the straw that broke the camels back.

The traders who had taken the other side of the order went to hedge there position in the market by selling futures contracts into the market. Other traders went on to hedge their bought futures contracts by selling physical stock on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ Exchange.

The hedging that takes place is all done via computers and at super-fast speeds. Computer trading was stopped after the 1987 Crash and deemed illegal by the exchanges. Computer trading now accounts by some estimates for more than 2/3rds of the volume of the New York Stock Exchange and the theory is that it provides much needed volume and conversely liquidity for the market.

The sheer volume of the orders generated by the program trading clogged the Arca Electronic Exchange and orders that normally take 1/300th of a second to execute were now taking 2 minutes to be actioned.

With the huge volume of orders going through the market, the people that control the some of the super-fast trading hedge funds, that provide much of liquidity for the exchanges, pulled out of the market altogether in an effort to find out what had happened with the market. The computers were moving faster than the human brain could comprehend.

These computers that normally supply volume to the market and allow traders to execute their trades in a timely and fare manner, disappeared. When this happened, there was literally no-one to buy any shares. I one extreme case Procter and Gamble went from $63.00 a share to $0.01 in under 20 minutes. The exchange later corrected the trades.

By 2.40pm in the afternoon the overload had taken it toll on the NYSE’s Arca electronic trading system. Other exchanges including NASDAQ and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange detected questionable information in the data and stopped routing orders through to the Arca System, effectively “pulling the plug”.

3pm and the selling pressure had stopped due to all the automated computer links being reset and the market climbed quickly. One factor behind the swift recovering was the same computer programs that forced the fall in the first place, now detected good value in the market and bought stocks up across the board cheaply.

This rollercoaster of a ride is yet another symptom of a financial system that is still has to be corrected from all the lax regulation over the last 10 years.

The global financial crisis was caused by the inability to value mortgage backed securities. The laws that were in place from 1932 to stop the collapse of the financial system by banks becoming to large were repealed in 1999.

The “up-tick” rule only allows “short selling” once a stock has moved up in price became part of the market rules in 1932, it was removed to allow increased volume from computer trading in the mid 1980’s and then reinstated after the 1987 stock market crash. Over the last 10 years it was then removed again and then in 2008 was reinstated.

After everything that has happened during the last couple of years and with the damage that it has caused to the global economy is seems amazing to me that the rules that were put in place after the worst bear market in history to prevent it ever happening again, have been so easily cast aside by the authorities.

For those of you that follow my work will know that I am a big believer in cycles both in and out of the financial markets, and that unfortunately in some cases history repeats itself time and time again.

There will be an analysis of what has happened over the course of the last couple of years in the financial markets and in the economy and “new” laws and regulation will be put in place to “protect” investors and the cycle will start again.

Maybe the people that we should be protected from are the Government officials who think its OK to tinker with financial market regulations.

Got it wrong I did

2010-04-06T14:33:00.001+10:00

Ohh well the RBA does what it says it needs to do. Up 0.25% or 25 basis points just a minute ago.

This should well and truly cool the housing market now.

Rates up today?????

2010-04-06T11:31:00.001+10:00

Time will tell but those of us here are split on whether the RBA will or will not raise rates today. Personally I am hoping that the cooling we are seeing in housing will be enough to put the brake on the RBA for this month at least.

After all the RBA Gov said that if they had known the pullback had occurred in housing before the last rise they would probably have held off.

So who knows maybe this time they will heed their own advice!

One of those days

2010-03-30T11:41:00.001+11:00

Just one of those days today ASX opened up then looks like spending the rest of the day going back to its starting point.

Up 8 points as I type and flat as a tack. looks like we have started Easter early here

The Oracle

XJO on the edge

2010-03-25T15:17:00.001+11:00

Ok my trader sense (bit like spidey sense but different) is twitching and telling me that the island reversal we are getting today is a sign of things to come.

the Oracle

ASX 200 up for lunch

2010-03-24T13:15:00.001+11:00

The ASX 200 is up for the day and at lunch 31 points with everything going along just fine. Our MQG and PPT shares are up well .

Try out the Weekly Ronin International Index/Forex/Commodity Report

2010-03-24T11:13:00.001+11:00

Select the link below to go to the sign up page on the CASHFLOW trader website.

This is a two month limited time offer.

http://www.cashflowtrader.net.au/free-index-report/

Things looking good for the ASX today

2010-03-24T09:43:00.001+11:00

The DOW was up 102 points S&P500 8.36 It has got to be looking good for a great day for us.

Trades looking Good

2010-03-23T17:16:00.001+11:00

ASX up for the day PPT’s looking good as is our MQG’s

MQG on target for a great trade

2010-03-23T14:34:00.001+11:00

MQG is doing great for us

We got in early and it looks like breaking the resistance level

Returns will be great

the Oracle

Looking at the ASX200

2010-03-23T13:04:00.001+11:00

The XJO still looks like it has some steam left in the present push forward. The Fibonacci levels are still in play from the last retracement.

Look for a little pullback then we go again.

National Australia Bank Update

2010-03-23T12:51:00.003+11:00

National Australia Bank appears to have broken the trading range that has been in play for a while now.

Good target for the flag pattern !

Looking at the ASX200

2010-03-23T11:13:00.001+11:00

The XJO still looks like it has some steam left in the present push forward. The Fibonacci levels are still in play from the last retracement.

Look for a little pullback then we go again.

Thoughts for the day

2010-03-23T09:18:00.001+11:00

ASX looking to go a bit further South while the Yanks digest the Obama health reform

Macquarie Bank and National Australia Bank

2010-03-18T13:56:00.003+11:00

Two very interesting charts have come up in the last couple of days. Both Macquarie Bank and National Australia Bank are in solid flag patterns.

We could be seeing some very interesting moves in both stocks coming up in the coming days.

Newcrest Mining and Gold

2010-03-17T13:42:00.003+11:00

Newcrest is presently in a flag pattern and based on the movements in Gold overnight, Newcrest Mining has the potential to break that flag pattern.

The target out of the flag pattern is $37.00 which is also the fibonnaci extension target as well.

Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Good Hunting

Toll Holdings

2010-03-16T14:28:00.002+11:00

Toll Holdings has bounced nicely from the 50% fibonnaci level and appears ready to make a decent retracement back up the long Candle that happened after the recent results.

The potential target out of the present pattern would be somewhere in the $7.70 region. A break in the trendline on the RSI and a move above $7.20 would confirm this bullish move.

Good Hunting

Euro Update

2010-02-22T09:16:00.003+11:00

The accumulation that I flagged last week in the Index Report in the currency still appears to be going on. The present pattern that we have seen over the last week is one of exhaustion and the failure to reach down to the 1.3300 level during the last week is another indication that the Euro is oversold in the short term. With the performance and movement of Cable over the last week we could be seeing a switching out of being short the Euro into being short Cable. I would be cautious about being short at the moment.

QBE Insurance Update and View

2010-02-20T00:14:00.004+11:00

QBE Insurance has been in a consolidation pattern for the last 4 months like the rest of the market. The stock is presently poised and is in an inverse head and shoulder pattern.

A break of Fridays high should see the neckline nicely broken on this inverse head and shoulders pattern and potentially target somewhere towards the $25.00 level.

The stock is currently trading on a attractive yield of 5.44% and with a price to earnings on just under 11 times the stock is not expensive compared to historicals.

Its something to watch closely over the next couple of weeks.

FTSE Index Update

2010-02-19T23:42:00.002+11:00

We have had the FTSE break both the recent downtrends over the last 2 weeks and with the current higher high and the bounce from the 200 day moving average, it appears that the UK Index is now on the road for another run north over the coming weeks and months.

The 5 wave structure is the same as the ASX200 that I flagged earlier in the week. We are presently at a cross roads with the indexes. We could either see a retracement back to roughly 50% of the recent move up before going long again, forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern and then giving us a target just to the outside of the top of the trading range that we have been in for the last 4 months, or we could have a strong acceleration out of this pattern as short covering and new money flood into the markets.

Something to watch very strongly over the course of the next week or so.

ASX200 Index Update

2010-02-16T15:08:00.003+11:00

The ASX200 Index has been waning of late and a lot of commentators are looking for lower prices, myself included up until recently.

The price action over the last couple of weeks has been struggling to go lower. Looking to the chart for the XJO we can see an inverted head and shoulders pattern marking the end of the downward movement. The market in June/June then broke the neckline and put in a target higher than it should have been. The period since September has been trading sideways and not really doing anything. For those of you that follow Elliot Wave theory, there are certain rules that the market is following at the moment. Wave 3 is typically the longest wave, but cannot be the shortest, and as wave 3 is clearly longer than Wave 1 this saying holds true. One of the other rules is that out of Waves 2 & 4, if one is a simple wave then the other must be complex. Wave 2 was simple due to the short sharp nature of the retracement, and wave 4 is complex due to the time taken and volatility during that time. Based on the pattern, the target for a wave 5 would be somewhere about 5400 or so. This coincides nicely with the fibonnaci targets as well.

So be wary of being too short this market at the moment.

Australian Stock Exchange - Company Update and View

2010-02-15T23:56:00.004+11:00

Australian Stock Exchange has underperformed most of the other financial on the ASX200 over the last 12 months. It has fallen out of favour along with most of the other global exchanges.

The present yield and the near monopoly position that it enjoys makes it worthy of having a good look at it.

The present technical chart on the stock is very interesting. After such a protracted downleg and the consolidation that the stock has been subject too, a move above the $37.00 to $38.00 level could set it up for a very solid run over the course of the next 12 months. The solid consolidation basing pattern is a very good sign for the stock going forward.

National Australia Bank - Company Update and View

2010-02-12T22:55:00.004+11:00

National Australia Bank has been held back recently against all the other banks due to it recent attempt to takeover of AXA.

There is strong dividend yield at present being at 5.92% fully franked and a very attractive Price to earnings of 9.39 times. The business is cheap on a global basis and Australian Banks are listed in the top ten banks globally. The present market Cap of $51 Billion is larger than Citigroup.

The takeover of the wealth management business AXA is important for the bank long term due to the wealth management component that it will add to National Australia Bank's already growing wealth management business and will help diversify away from the margin squeeze in the lending area.

As per the attached chart the stock is attractive and is over sold in the short to medium term basis. It would not take a lot for the stock to turn around.

Dow Jones Update

2010-02-12T09:37:00.003+11:00

Looking at the Dow Jones at the moment, it appears that exhaustion is starting to come in on the downside. I have thought that that markets were overdone on the long side for a while now and have been of the opinion that the market could be going lower. The lack of conviction with the downturn is turning into the possibility that this is nothing more than a consolidation pattern. The 200 period moving average that was strong resistance mid last year, now could have the ability to be strong support. The level of bearishness out there amongst traders suggests that a lot of people are already short. Unless we see some major changes in the index over the next couple of days we could see a break of the trendline and the market move to the longside to complete a fifth wave.

Aristocrat Leisure - ALL

2010-02-11T23:48:00.003+11:00

Aristocrat is still following the script. Fell today on greatly reduced volume. Something to watch very closely.

Telstra - Company Update and View

2010-02-11T21:02:00.004+11:00

The market was unimpressed by Telstra's recent company results.

There were a number of factors here. The EBITDA was down by 0.3% to $5.32 Billion. Revenue for the six months ending 2008 was down by 2.8%.

The company said that it was experiencing "challenging market conditions". Revenue from traditional fixed line was down by $222 Million. Revenue from other businesses were down by $53 Million. Revenue from mobile services, how ever was growing strongly , up $145 Million.

The stock has been trading in a consolidation pattern now for over 12 months against the recent rally in the stock market. It has not enjoyed the upward momentum, that a lot of other stocks have enjoyed over the last 12 months. The stock is currently trading on a dividend yield of 8.26%, which is extremely attractive.

In my experience, when stocks start to pay yields that are self-funding then you tend to find that they have bottomed. When I talk about self-funding it means that the yield from the security is greater than what you can borrow funds for. I am not saying that the stock is ready to turn around and rocket to the moon, but it is attractive down here against other forms of investment yields such as term deposits and such.

Happy trading

All that glitters is Gold

2010-02-08T10:35:00.003+11:00

We have had triangulation for the downside, the with the present creeping trend I would expect that it would fail to get below $1027.00. The present pattern is one of consolidation and is not a topping pattern in my opinion. There is a large flag forming that has been more than 5 months in the making. The target out of this flag pattern is between $1310.00 and $1344.00 an ounce. Something that I would not be short at the moment.

Aristocrat Leisure - ALL

2010-02-05T18:50:00.003+11:00

Aristocrat Leisure looks to be bucking the trend of the rest of the index with some seriously nice patterns for the long side. Nice triangulation on the fibonnaci and was confirmed with the touch of the fibonnaci targets. The declining volume over the last 4 days while the stock struggles to go down anything close to the rest of the market is a good sign.

Bramble Industries - BXB

2010-02-05T18:41:00.003+11:00

Brambles Industries looks pretty interesting at the moment. The fibonacci sequence has the potential if it can move above $6.90 for a decent move to the long side

Liquid Natural Gas up 5.5% overnight

2010-02-02T08:31:00.006+11:00

As you know LNG is one of my most preferred commodities over the coming years. It was up strongly last night by over 5.5%.

Sensex Index - Indian Market

2010-02-01T21:45:00.002+11:00

The Indian market, like most of the other asain indexes, has been in a better situation that the US Indexes. I would expect this to continue. The index has been consolidating since September and would expect these to outperform the US Indexes over the coming weeks and would expect a rebound in this index within the next couple of days. I will be looking for where this rebound retraces to before looking for a downside atrget and if that downside target will break the range. This index could move down by more than 10% before I would consider it to be in a bear trend.

Cable (British Pound) GBPUSD

2010-02-01T21:32:00.002+11:00

Cable is still within the trading range and a break to the lower side of this trading range would target the 1.5200 level easily over the coming weeks with an eventual move towards the 1.4800 area. The level of support is very strong and would expect that it wouldn't break to the bottom of the channel the first time

Westfield Gartley Pattern

2010-01-29T16:26:00.003+11:00

Here's the potential Gartley Pattern on Westfield WDC.AX. Looks very good considering the market is down strongly in the last couple of days

Woolworths possible bounce in the stock

2010-01-29T16:13:00.006+11:00

We have a three touch trendline going on at the moment in Woolworths and would be very surprised if we don't see a nice bounce from these levels in the stock. Stock code is WOW on the Australian Stock Exchange

Obviously great minds think alike we posted after discussion almost on top of each other

2010-01-29T14:42:00.000+11:00

Thought I would put a better diagram up for all to see with a the trendline in this time.

2010-01-29T14:15:00.000+11:00

Still think WOW is a good retracement trade in the making especially since now we have the makings of a Doji today. My logic is simple here this is a case of panic and the news wasn't that bad at all/

Carnarvon Petroleum

2010-01-27T13:40:00.002+11:00

Analysis indicates that a potential turning point is possible in the stock today

Liquid Natural Gas, Dollar Index and Brambles

2010-01-25T16:35:00.006+11:00

Bramble Industries have bounced off some nice support levels today according to the fibs. I would be looking for some decent moves over the coming months back towards the $7.80 levels. Break in the trendline and higher highs and lower lows.

Dollar Index has definately turned the corner, and would be looking for the Us Dollar to strengthen over the coming month or so. Something that could change the dynamics in a lot of other markets.

Liquidified Natural Gas LNG is a commodity that I think will become more and more important over the coming months and years. The chart is indicating that the commodity has turned the corner and we should be looking for nicely increasing prices going forward. As this commodity becomes more and more important to the developing world due to its cleaner burning properties, the demand for it should increase expodentially.

RIO & BHP get the tick of approval from Deutsche

2010-01-13T12:00:00.001+11:00

The info below is very interesting. Seems that steel is still the big thing, even though there is still a lot of anxiety out there in general. It will be interesting to watch the money flow over the next couple of months as we are definately in for some form of pullback. I am not going to say it is happening just yet, even if I really would like too.

YES I AM STILL IN BEAR MODE.

(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s second-biggest and third-biggest iron ore producers, had their earnings forecasts raised as much as 39 percent by Deutsche Bank AG on increased metal price estimates.

another week another bore

2009-12-21T08:39:00.001+11:00

Well start of a new week and all is the same as last week. By this I mean that we should see more of the indexes moving within a range and not a whole lot of anything more.

the Oracle

Dollar Index

2009-12-17T21:47:00.003+11:00

For those that get the paid members only newsletter, you would have noticed that I have been talking about the correlation between the US Dollar Index and the SP500 Equity Index.

We have seen the dollar index trend line being broken in the last couple of days. As you can see from the attached chart the correlation has been right on the money when it comes to marking major turning points in the Equity Indexes over the last 18 months.

Could this be the start of a major correction in the Equity Indexes or is it setting up for another move long out of the Flag pattern that exists on the Indexes. Only time will tell....

Its broken the Level

2009-12-17T21:01:00.004+11:00

Keep an eye on the US Dollar in the coming days. The inverse relationship between the DXY dollar Index and the Equity Markets have been uncanny of late.

Here's a chart on Cable (GBPUSD). As you can see , its a very clear heads and shoulders pattern and we have just had a break below the 1.6200 level on the downside for a flag pattern.

If we see a large scale move back towards the US Dollar it could see movements to the downside in Equity markets.

2009-12-16T09:33:00.002+11:00

Overnight indexes

DOW down, FTSE down, CAC flat and same for the DAX

Today here looks to be one of sitting on our hands and waiting for tomorrow, unless of course your someone who likes to short. Then maybe get ready because I reckon its a down day ahead here

Cable

2009-12-15T18:14:00.002+11:00

Keep a close eye on Cable (GBPUSD) in the Forex markets. Its been consolidating now for about a week and we should be starting to see a decent move out of this level.

The 1.6330 level has some serious resistance there and a decent break should see it move pretty nicely.

Keep an eye in the Equity markets for some of the financials. I think you should start to see some of the financials move once the capital raisings in Citibank and Wells Fargo are complete and the TARP money repaid.

2009-12-15T14:35:00.001+11:00

The Oracle is now on Twitter as tradingoracle if you wanna tag along

the gorgon project (ala Wiki)

2009-12-15T13:19:00.003+11:00

For those that don't know what the Gorgon project is. This is from Wikipedia

The Gorgon gas project is a proposed petroleum project in Western Australia, involving the development of the Greater Gorgon gas fields, subsea gas-gathering infrastructure, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant on Barrow Island. It will become Australia's third LNG export development.

'Greater Gorgon' refers to a grouping of several gas fields, including Gorgon, Chandon, Geryon, Orthrus, Maenad, Eurytion, Urania, Chrysaor, Dionysus, Jansz/Io, and West Tryal Rocks, situated in the Barrow sub-basin of the Carnarvon Basin) - an area commonly referred to as the North West Shelf. The Gorgon field is centered about 130 kilometres (81 mi) off the north-west coast of Western Australia, where the water depth is approximately 200 metres (660 ft). Other fields in the group lie to the north, such as Jansz-Io, which covers an area of 2,000 square kilometres (770 sq mi), in a water depth of 1,300 metres (4,300 ft).

Barrow Island lies off the Pilbara coast, 85 kilometres (53 mi) north-north-east of Onslow and 140 kilometres (90 mi) west of Karratha. The largest of a group of islands which include the Montebello and Lowendal Islands, it is 25 kilometres (16 mi) long and 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) wide, covering 235 square kilometres (91 sq mi).

The gas fields, 200 km from the coast are said to contain 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and may have a lifespan of 60 years. The gas is worth A$500 billion at current market prices and the market price will keep increasing over the next few years.

courtesy of bloomberg - Chevron finds more gas off of Gorgon project

2009-12-15T13:07:00.000+11:00

told you the miners and oilers had too much to lose if we have to go ultra green. This in from bloomberg;

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy producer, made a gas discovery off the coast of Western Australia that may help expand its A$43 billion ($39 billion) Gorgon liquefied natural gas project.

Chevron found gas at its Satyr-1 well in the Carnarvon Basin, following a discovery in the area in October, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement. Chevron said it’s investing “heavily” in Australian exploration.

“There has been a run of very good exploration success in the Carnarvon and Browse Basins” off the northwest coast, Graeme Bethune, a consultant at EnergyQuest in Adelaide, said by phone today. “I would expect discovery rates next year to be at least as good as this year.”

The Gorgon venture with partners Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc is the largest of more than a dozen planned LNG projects in Australia seeking to tap Asian demand for less-polluting alternatives to coal. Gorgon, set to start exporting LNG in 2014 from three five-million-metric-tons-a-year processing units, may add a fourth and fifth train at the Barrow Island site, Chevron said in September.

Satyr, drilled to 4,560 meters, found 130 meters of so- called “net gas pay,” the U.S. oil producer said in its statement. Chevron said in October it discovered gas at its Achilles-1 well, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) northwest of Onslow, and was spending “hundreds of millions of dollars” on Australian exploration.

Chevron said Dec. 10 that it plans 2010 spending of $17.3 billion on exploration, production and natural gas projects, including the Gorgon and Wheatstone ventures in Australia.

Gorgon and Wheatstone

"We are investing heavily in Australia on exploration, appraisal and seismic programs,” Roy Krzywosinski, Chevron Australia’s managing director, said in a statement today. The drilling will underpin Gorgon and Wheatstone, he said.

The Satyr-1 well is in a permit area operated by Chevron. Shell and Exxon also have interests, it said. Gas for Gorgon will be piped to Barrow Island for processing into liquid form from fields 130 to 200 kilometers (81 to 124 miles) off the coast, according to the project’s Web site.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer and Chevron’s rival in securing gas supplies in the state, has started a drilling campaign to find fuel to support an expansion of its A$13 billion Pluto LNG project in Western Australia.

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy producer, made a gas discovery off the coast of Western Australia that may help expand its A$43 billion ($39 billion) Gorgon liquefied natural gas project.

Chevron found gas at its Satyr-1 well in the Carnarvon Basin, following a discovery in the area in October, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement. Chevron said it’s investing “heavily” in Australian exploration.

“There has been a run of very good exploration success in the Carnarvon and Browse Basins” off the northwest coast, Graeme Bethune, a consultant at EnergyQuest in Adelaide, said by phone today. “I would expect discovery rates next year to be at least as good as this year.”

The Gorgon venture with partners Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc is the largest of more than a dozen planned LNG projects in Australia seeking to tap Asian demand for less-polluting alternatives to coal. Gorgon, set to start exporting LNG in 2014 from three five-million-metric-tons-a-year processing units, may add a fourth and fifth train at the Barrow Island site, Chevron said in September.

Satyr, drilled to 4,560 meters, found 130 meters of so- called “net gas pay,” the U.S. oil producer said in its statement. Chevron said in October it discovered gas at its Achilles-1 well, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) northwest of Onslow, and was spending “hundreds of millions of dollars” on Australian exploration.

Chevron said Dec. 10 that it plans 2010 spending of $17.3 billion on exploration, production and natural gas projects, including the Gorgon and Wheatstone ventures in Australia.

Gorgon and Wheatstone

“We are investing heavily in Australia on exploration, appraisal and seismic programs,” Roy Krzywosinski, Chevron Australia’s managing director, said in a statement today. The drilling will underpin Gorgon and Wheatstone, he said.

The Satyr-1 well is in a permit area operated by Chevron. Shell and Exxon also have interests, it said. Gas for Gorgon will be piped to Barrow Island for processing into liquid form from fields 130 to 200 kilometers (81 to 124 miles) off the coast, according to the project’s Web site.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer and Chevron’s rival in securing gas supplies in the state, has started a drilling campaign to find fuel to support an expansion of its A$13 billion Pluto LNG project in Western Australia.

2009-12-15T11:47:00.002+11:00

Well looks like Copenhagen is going to be a very costly waste of time with the African Nations walking out on the pretext that the wealthy nations didn't want to play fair. Well blow me down with a feather, did the Africans really think that the others would. I'm sorry but the big multinational oilers and miners have got way too much to lose and way too much clout to let that happen. So from a markets point of view it is just another day like any other. Watch this space though because whether we like it or not something does have to happen, it isn't going to happen this time but it will happen. Yea I know you've heard that before. So watch the indexes and particularly gold because it is falling against the US dollar and that same dollar is the one that has the most to lose when the climate debate starts to go onto the boil.

The Oracle

Congress blasts Bernanke

2009-12-10T09:42:00.000+11:00

Now you all know the Oracle is a bit of a conspiracy theorist, and you also know that I love The Daily Reckoning blog and newsletter. So I couldn't miss out on sharing this little snippet with you could I?

From The Daily Reckoning a bit of light reading....

"You are the definition of a moral hazard. Your Fed has become the creature from Jekyll Island"

That was Senator Jim Bunning's comment to Ben Bernanke during the hearing into Bernanke's renomination to the US Federal Reserve.

Who would have thought there are members of Congress willing to say it as it is to Ben Bernanke?

But I'm sure you've read about it in The Age or the Australian Financial Review?

No, unfortunately not.

Because the mainstream press wouldn't want people thinking bad things about the Fed Reserve. They are here to save us. They are the cavalry riding over the hilltops to our rescue.

The myth of the purity of the Federal Reserve's motives is jealously guarded by the mainstream press. Any dissenting voices are quickly dismissed as cranks and extremists.

Currently Senator Ron Paul (One of the rare politicians in America with a brain and a conscience) has been trying to get a bill passed that would audit the Fed and attempt to find out exactly what it is holding on its balance sheet.

In fact he has been trying for 30 years, but finally after the shenanigans of the Fed over the past year, the other members of Congress have finally woken up and agree that something needs to be done.

Of course this is being resisted by Bernanke. He says if Congress interferes in the business of the Fed Reserve it will jeopardise their independence on monetary policy.

That one line is usually enough to shut people up so the Fed can return to their game of printing money and bailing out their banking masters.

It still amazes me how most people have no idea about what money is or how it's created. They assume it's too complex to understand and therefore they believe what they're told.

So much so that you can watch a video here of people in America signing a petition that asks the Fed to deliberately raise the inflation rate to 100% for the next 5 years to cause hyperinflation!

This is the level of ignorance we're dealing with. Every word that Ben Bernanke speaks is believed and reported as gospel. But it's not surprising the population has that attitude when they rely so much on the mainstream press.

I was astonished last week to see that CNBC hosted their 'Squawk Box' show direct from the Cash Room of the US Treasury. So much for an independent media.

Was that CNBCs reward for toeing the line on the merit of the bail outs and the actions of the Fed?

No dissenting views are allowed. If there are moments such as the tirade from Senator Jim Bunning on Bernanke last week, then it is underreported. Or at the very least reported in a way that makes Senator Bunning look like an extremist with the wrong point of view.

All of this while markets around the world move to the beat of the Fed's drum.

The carry trade is in full swing and the Fed is more than happy to feed it.

There is no doubt that the historic move in markets this year can be put down to the free money being doled out by the Fed to its banking buddies.

I've watched markets for sixteen years and I've rarely seen such a sustained explosive rally as that of the last nine months.

Trust me, this is not the behaviour of a free market.

This is a market being managed by unseen hands. Think about this - Hong Kong property prices are up 30% this year, with those in the luxury sector up by about 40% according to Marketwatch.

In my view this is the result of a flood of US Dollars looking for a home.

The Chinese banks were forced to lend out more than 9 Trillion yuan ($1.5 Trillion) last year, an amount equal to 27% of the country's GDP! China Securities Journal has predicted that new bank lending may fall as much as 30% in 2010 to around 6-7 Trillion yuan.

What affect will that have on Chinese demand?

They've already caused a bubble in property development and there are shopping centres sitting empty with no tenants and no customers.

What trick can they pull out of their sleeves this year to create some phantom demand?

For those with a head for this sort of stuff, and remember when it comes to trading you want to ensure you have all the news and not just the news they want you to have...

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/

2009-12-04T12:51:00.001+11:00

Who would have believed it Commbank raising rates by 37 basis points. Fence sitters!!!!

Ronin Asset Management Pty Ltd trading as Cashflow Trader is an Authorised Representative (No. 333209) of Sonray Capital Markets Pty Ltd AFSL 231151 and we do not endorse or vouch for the accuracy or authenticity of postings and no responsibility is accepted for any opinion expressed or for any error or omissi
on that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.

2009-12-03T15:04:00.001+11:00

Well sometimes you just have to look at yesterday to know what is going to happen today. Big up day yesterday people taking the money off of the table today. Seems to be the flavour of the year doesn't it. for every Bull there is a equal and opposite Bear to pull us back. I can't wait for one or the other to take control of all of this, so we can get it over and done with and get on with making money.

the Oracle

Ronin Asset Management Pty Ltd trading as Cashflow Trader is an Authorised Representative (No. 333209) of Sonray Capital Markets Pty Ltd AFSL 231151 and we do not endorse or vouch for the accuracy or authenticity of postings and no responsibility is accepted for any opinion expressed or for any error or omission that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.

2009-11-26T09:58:00.002+11:00

Well been a while since our last post, we have been incredibly busy with the business of running the business. But enough of me giving excuses, as to why or why not...

We are very, very interested in this 'greening' of Aussie thing that our gov't and Malcolm the magnificent is diving us headlong into at this time. Not because of the fact I do or do not agree, but because it will impact every one of us at some level or other. In our case as a markets business we have office space and all the energy gobbling bits-n-pieces that go along with that.

So what says you, well says me, carbon footprints costs money, and in our game that means the opportunity to trade carbon credit futures and maybe offset our onging costs, and who knows maybe make money out of this fiasco (oops sorry did I say fiasco).

As far as our clients go, when we get this 'thing' sorted in our heads it will be something we offer to those that run small to medium sized businesses as a benefit of belonging. After all we are in the business of money and we should not hide the opportunity from those that can benefit.

The Oracle (back from the temple of learning)

Ronin Asset Management Pty Ltd trading as Cashflow Trader is an Authorised Representative (No. 333209) of Sonray Capital Markets Pty Ltd AFSL 231151 and we do not endorse or vouch for the accuracy or authenticity of postings and no responsibility is accepted for any opinion expressed or for any error or omission that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.

Mac Bank on the lookout again????????

2009-10-23T09:10:00.002+11:00

This is on the Bloomberg site under German news. seems to be interesting

EnBW Said to Seek Bids Up to $1.4 Billion on East German Assets

EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG, Germany’s third-largest power supplier, is seeking to raise as much as 950 million euros ($1.4 billion) in its biggest asset sale, three people familiar with the matter said.

GESO, an eastern German utility holding company for which EnBW is accepting bids until the beginning of next week, may fetch 700 million to 950 million euros, two of the people said, declining to be identified because details of the transaction are private. Australian bank Macquarie Group Ltd. may be among the bidders, they said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aJRQmBhg3d6Y

the Oracle

The view from the right of the field

2009-10-23T09:01:00.004+11:00

Lets face it I might not be a full blown trus believer from the Right side of economics but I am a believer in Govt's haven't got a clue about how to run the books, because in this country they have to get themselves elected every four years so they spend their time pandering to the loudest minorities. Because of this or maybe it's because they tell a great story, I love the Daily Reckoning.

today it's about the markets and what is happening, and here a really do agree with the opinion, which goes like this.

The armies of zombie greenbacks did not begin their attack yesterday, as your editor predicted. At least they didn't do so in overwhelming fashion. But if you were looking (and we were), there were signs that the wind has shifted in the stock market and things are about to change.

The challenge of today's Daily Reckoning is to separate the short-term trends in financial markets from the long-term trends in geopolitical history. It's a big challenge. But let's break it down and see where we go. And let's begin with U.S. Bank Wells Fargo.

The Dow Jones slipped under 10,000 at the end of the day Wednesday largely because analyst Dick Bove changed his call on Wells Fargo from "neutral" to "sell." Bove said the quality of the company's third quarter earnings was, "pretty poor." "If you take a close look at the earnings, what you can see is that the improvement is due to a hedging profit made on the mortgage service portfolio, about $3.6 billion...You can also see that they cut their tax rate," he told Dow Jones news wires.

Imagine that; a major bank boosting earnings with one-off events. This is why we said last week that quarterly earnings (and whether they are above or below analyst expectations) don't always tell you what you need to know about a business. Granted, Bove is still bullish on Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. But his comment set off a small chain reaction on the Street.

It was a weird reaction too. Stocks fell and the Aussie dollar briefly faltered against the greenback. But commodities like oil and gold continued to power ahead. Oil is at a 12-month high and trading over US$81. Gold futures again traded above $1,060. And the U.S. dollar kept falling against commodities and other currencies.

So does this disprove our trading idea that the dollar index is due for a rally? Nope. The index could make a new low below 70. And that would certainly confirm what we already know: the rest of the world is on to America's habit of living way above its means. The dollar index could plumb a new low until there is an improvement in America's trade deficit or its fiscal deficit. However...

Don't discount the rally! "We should be prepared for a counter trend rally," wrote Slipstreamer Murray Dawes earlier this week. "RSI are entering long term oversold levels (although in a downtrend they can remain oversold for long periods of time of course and so are not a good trading signal against the trend) and market news is constantly bearish the US dollar so trader positions may be getting a bit full up on the short side."

source The Daily Reckoning (well worth the read)

have a great trading day

Glowing Economy

2009-10-20T10:05:00.002+11:00

I see Ian Macfarlane was giving a glowing review of the little Aussie battler economy yesterday at a Lowy Instiute lecture. He says we have come out of the GFC more robust than any other western style economy in the world. Thats wonderful but whats going to happen when we cant quite literally dig ourselves out of the poo. Maybe we need to start looking at restructuring our thinking a bit.

Oils aint Oils Sol!!!!!

2009-10-20T09:52:00.004+11:00

Good Morning Bloggers

I see we are playing the petrol game again in Sydney, the price of Singapore crude has risen this week and some of last. So what you say, well it allows the petrol companies to raise the bowser price doesn't it. How do these guys justify this stuff when the value of the Aussie Dollar is going through the roof. I don't think we will get to parity with the green back but we are getting damn close thats for sure. Ok rant time is over, what does all of this mean to us traders, well resources is about the only game in town at the moment with oilers (little ones) having to be a good bet. Also Uranium seems to be shining (bad pun I know) again, with the Chinese wanting nother slice of our continent to take home with them. Our wesfarmers and Oil Search trades went well so it is time to start looking for a buy again.

Good trading Oracle

2009-10-09T14:03:00.002+11:00

Australian central bank Governor Glenn Stevens will raise interest rates for a second straight month in November, analysts say, after a report yesterday showed the nation’s unemployment rate may have peaked below 6 percent.

The jobless rate fell to 5.7 percent, the first drop in five months, as employment unexpectedly surged by 40,600, the bureau of statistics reported yesterday in Sydney. The nation’s currency jumped to a 14-month high and is headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than four months as traders bet the central bank will raise interest rates on Nov. 3.

I guess the writing is on the wall then for the stimulus packages and what they have done for our economy. COOKED it. Or should I say over stimulated, and we all know what happens then..

have a great weekend and good trading

2009-10-08T15:46:00.002+11:00

Yes, sold out of LGL for better than 5% profit over the three days.

HAPPY, HAPPY, JOY, JOY

NZ 1 Westpac 0 ?????

2009-10-08T08:26:00.002+11:00

Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd shares have been placed in a trading halt, pending the release of a statement on the outcome of a tax-related court case in New Zealand.

According to the bank, the New Zealand High Court is set to deliver its verdict on Wednesday, however a binding order from the court means that no announcement will be made until October 8.

"The trading halt is necessary as Westpac will be making an announcement in relation to the outcome of the court case on New Zealand Structured Finance Transactions between Westpac and New Zealand Inland Revenue Department (IRD)," Westpac said on Wednesday.

Analysts have flagged that Westpac could face a potential bill of $NZ903 million ($A728.28 million), while The Australian Financial Review newspaper said a rise in the interest charge on the original claim has pushed the figure close to $NZ996 million.

The legal stoush between Westpac and the New Zealand tax authorities started on June 30.

One thing, Westpac should take heed of the fact the NZ IRS is notorious and there have been cases of people committing suicide because of the way they come after you, kind of makes our ATO look like little furry kittens in comparison.

good trading

2009-10-07T09:44:00.002+11:00

Another day and another 130 points on the DOW, plus 14 on the S&P500, you really have to wonder what that market is running on. Must be a good day here even though we had our little dose of reality yesterday. Watch those banks.

good trading

2009-10-06T16:25:00.001+11:00

For the first time since March 2008, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the official cash rate to 3.25%. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens cited close to trend growth over the year ahead, on-target inflation and the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed as reasons for the decision. Also mentioned was the unintended boost of the first home buyer’s grant and the rise of home prices in general as important factors in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision.

for more info on RBA decision go to

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-lifts-rates-20091006-gkv5.html

Good trading

2009-10-06T16:20:00.003+11:00

Well I would have got that one wrong. The RBA has moved rates up by 0.25% or 25 basis points this afternoon. as for the next 2 days it will be interesting how the rest of the world sees what is going on here. The RBA as always seen itself as independant and that is a good thing, or so they say. One one side we have the Gov't continuing with it's stimulus package trying to push the econhomy forward. And on the other side we have the RBA saying "better cool this off before she blows". Me I'm just tallying up the cost, coz there is no way the Banks won't take this opportunity to take a bite out of us mortgage owners.

good trading

2009-10-02T10:17:00.002+10:00

Ohh dear looks like those yanks finally wike up from hibernation. well it is spring isn't it, so it is time for the bears to wake up and come out to play again. 203 down on the DOW and more importantly 27 down on the S&P500. Get ready for our little exchange to get a case of the wagging dog and get set for a longer weekend than first thought. Set those stops and go get a good book out. cya

Trade Well

2009-10-01T15:13:00.005+10:00

Ok, more ranting again. In Aus we have started to get these adds on the radio where they tell us how well our super' is doing. They are saying things like what a great few months your super has risen over 15% over the last quarter. When will people figure out that they lost better than 40% over the downturn and that 15% is based on growth from what was left over. I know rant rant rant, but somebody has to say it.

Happy Trading

2009-10-01T15:07:00.002+10:00

Wow what a week so far, bought into AMP and ASX on the Aus stock exchange and they are both doing fantastically. Up on both trades. We still think that the market is going to roll over and the Oracle (namely me) thinks that maybe the Santa Clause rally could be a thing of the past this year. No St. Nick coz we've all been naughty boys and girls. As for the U.S. at the moment, I still can't believe they think that all is well and that the world has fixed itself, and that is the problem. They will figure it out eventually and then 'boom' the balloon will burst and down we go again. Then and only then I am prepared to say onward and upwards. don't want to seem like a doom and gloom guy, I just want to shake the last vestages of the rot out of the system.

Happy trading.

Adam's Family...

2009-09-23T12:08:00.004+10:00

Its creepy and its kooky , its really kind of ookey....

Jokes aside , strange things are happening with the markets at the moment. Everybody is talking about the equity markets moving higher and how bright and rosey the economy is moving , but Gold , the precious metal , that people have stored wealth in in times of trouble and uncertainty for hundreds of year continues to inch higher. A the time of writing its trading at $1,015 US a ounce.

Equity markets moving up and Gold moving up at the same time are not the norm. Normally when this happens , one of these are out of place. We have had a strong up trend since our Buy market alert back in March , the uptrend in Gold has only just started. This is telling us that we are about to get a change in the equity markets sometime soon , and the further this imbalance continues , the bigger the move will be...

2009-09-18T13:15:00.003+10:00

Check this out, found it on bloomberg today. Gottal love our Gov't selling us down the drain 2 generations out from now.

Chevron Corp. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed to invest in the AUD$37 billion Gorgon natural gas venture only after Australia’s government assumed liability for potential damages hundreds of years from now. That may set a precedent in this resource rich nation.

What the hell do they think they are doing?????

2009-09-16T14:07:00.004+10:00

Telstra breaking up is something that was always going to be on the cards for the company. Having a look at it, is this good for Telstra shareholders? If we look at other large Telco’s globally that have gone through this sort of break up, the result is almost always cheaper costs for consumers , but the number of customers in total , and normally by a significant factor. In this case I don’t think that we will see that, regardless of what the media and the government say, we have pretty solid competition in mobile and long distance and comparable costs for other countries (i.e. UK and US) do not have a major amount of difference in pricing.

Telstra is a vertically integrated company, meaning that it does everything to do with Telecommunications in this country in one form or another. The government is proposing that Telstra be broken up and this can actually be of great benefit for both the company and the shareholders over the medium to long term. If they do break up the company then a couple of different things will have to happen.

The assets will have to be either sold, spun off or a combination of the two. If the assets are sold for Cash, then the company has do something with that Cash, they could either do a special dividend (high possibility considering the past record of special dividends), capital return (unlikely as they have a lot of franking credits that need to be used), pay down debt (unlikely as they have one of the most under geared balance sheets out there) or they spin the businesses off and float them releasing value that way and solving there problem at the same time.
When is comes to companies listing on the stock exchange, the sum of its parts being greater than the whole is very true. Diversified companies tend to not specialize and become a jack of all trades and master of none. A good example of a Telco that has concentrated its attention on a particular business is Vodafone; it concentrates on Mobile and over the last 15 years has grown dramatically outside its native UK to cover most of the globe. Breaking up of Telstra should unlock a lot of value both short term and if it’s done correctly the long term as well.

Ronin Asset Management Pty Ltd trading as Cashflow Trader is an Authorised Representative (No. 333209) of Sonray Capital Markets Pty Ltd AFSL 231151 and we do not endorse or vouch for the accuracy or authenticity of postings and no responsibility is accepted for any opinion expressed or for any error or omission that may have occurred herein. Posters are individually responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their postings. Unless specifically stated, Posters on this blog are not investment advisers and do not hold the necessary licence or have any formal qualification to give investment advice. All postings are of the nature of general information only and must not in any way be construed or relied upon as legal, financial or professional advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of any investment for your circumstances. www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers and www.fido.gov.au provides general guidance about investing. The nature of the internet may make it hard to identify or locate the Poster. Securities cannot be offered to you for sale or issue through postings and it is advisable that you alert Ronin Asset Management or ASIC Infoline on 1300 300 630 if you have good reason to suspect that any postings are inaccurate, are based on inside information or are likely to mislead or deceive people who view or use the postings. Posters may comment optimistically or pessimistically on stocks in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for Ronin Asset Management to moderate all posts. Some misleading and inaccurate information may appear and if you have concerns with a post, you must report the violation to us immediately.

2009-09-16T09:39:00.006+10:00

The Oracles view on Telstra

Man when will those stupid .......'s in Gov't come to grips with the fact the TLS is a listed entity and they can't just go shooting their politically agendered mouths off about what they want to do. My parents own Telstra (poor buy and hold people that they are) as part of their Super that they now have to live on. I don't think I will be asking their opinion on this for a few days yet.

Ok I have vented now and got the ohhh poor investors stuff out. From here it's lets look at the opportunity that should present itself. The chart below shows a few months of the TLS beast in it's emporers new clothes (in other words bare assed look). The orange line is the all time low and I find it very interesting that the 150% fib retracement from the previous rally is almost on top of this line.

If I was a opportunistic trader (and I am) I might in my one persons loss is anothers opportunity kind of way be looking to possibly, hypothetically......... Well you get the idea!

Sorry mum and dad, but I know you really want your son to be a success.....

Party with the Oracle

2009-09-14T10:11:00.004+10:00

It's amazing what people will do for a piece of free software, just got an invite to host a Windows 7 launch party, (too long in bed with Microsoft I guess), will keep you guys informed as to when and where over the next couple of weeks.

Welcome to the weekend

2009-09-12T07:25:00.003+10:00

Well I have to say this week is starting to show the way things are going to be in the future. At last the mrkets are starting to show some signs of exhaustion. As the bear said gold is getting a bit of momentum behind it and as much as I don't really follow the price of crude (I just complain abut the price of fuel at the bowser), I can see what he is talking about. The ASX had another week of gains and it is going to be interesting to watch the launch of Myers into the world of listed entities. Have a great weekend and see you next week.

The Oracle

Something smells fishy....

2009-09-09T13:18:00.010+10:00

We are at the turning point of something in the markets. We have a 3 thrust pattern at the top of an up trend in the XJO at the moment. This is a strong indication of a trend that is struggling to make further headway.

We have been keen on gold for a while now , and from the chart you can see why. It has broken of a triangle pattern which has a target that is a good 30% higher than where the price is at the moment.

Now from the attached charts on some of the major crosses with the US Dollar , it is not looking good for it.

Stock Indexes Stalled

US Dollar potentially weakening

Gold break out to the long side.

All these are coming together at the same time. We are potentially due some sort of shock to the market with all these turning points coming together at the some moment in time.

Interesting times ahead Be careful of anything with a big US Dollar exposure. Have a good day

Good Hunting

Bear

Gold , all that glitters is Gold

2009-09-03T16:30:00.002+10:00

Time to have a watchful eye on the precious metal. We have a large and solid consolidation pattern at the moment which has been over 6 months in the making in Gold. We have seen the beginnings of a break out whihch could see a very solid run in both the physical commodity and gold stocks that are nicely leveraged to any upside movement in price.

Watch very closely , that $USD1000 level will be broken and a $USD1200 to $USD1300 target is easily achieveable.

Nice to know you aren't the only one

2009-08-19T09:31:00.002+10:00

just had the opportunity to read something from Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group which was on Squak box last night in the U.S. It seems he too is of the belief this rally may be at an end. you might want to check it out. http://www.cnbc.com.au/ then go to NEWS - ASIA PACIFIC and look for It's the End of the 'Cheerleading Rally': Strategist. don't you just love the term 'cheerleading rally'.

The sweet smell of a contraction

2009-08-19T08:55:00.002+10:00

Is it finally about to happen, a 180 point fall on monday in the US and the a 70 point retracement last night. PLEASE let this be the start of a pullback in the markets as we have been running on vapour for the last couple of weeks. So what if Aus has signed a huge contract for gas with the Chinese it doesn't mean we have got back on the horse and we are away. There is still a little dirt left to scrub off before the economy is even close to back on track. so lets wipe some more off clear out the dead wood and get players like me comfortable with the way thingts are.

Worried

2009-08-16T19:14:00.002+10:00

I am a little more than concerned about the present state of the equity markets. I have a top coming in using quite a few different methods. Candlesticks , timing counts , cycle work , Gann angles etc etc etc all are presently calling a top in the market. Time to go to cash or for the brave , have a look at some shorts on the market and stocks.

Interesting times

2009-08-07T06:36:00.002+10:00

Well DOW, S&P, Russell and even thye NASDAQ are down overnight and it is Friday here. We all know the rules never buy on Friday. Since I am in cash at the moment I might just have a relaxing day with friends and sit back and watch. Nah lets face it I will be watching. Have a good day.

Contrarian

2009-08-05T21:09:00.002+10:00

Hmmmm...might be time to take some money off the table. We closed out our positions in WBC and WDC over the last couple of days for some pretty healthy profits , but at the moment looks like we are in for a nice little retracement in the indexes. I would be wary of any longs in the equity market as we speak and anything that is running close to the wire ( not hugely profitable that won't sustain a retracement) I would be looking to close or hedge.

We had Housing Sales out of the US the other night and was the best numbers that for those figure since 2003. They are normally a good indicator of a sustained turn in the economy. I would suggest that the market is getting ahead of itself in the short term, but that the tide is definately turned for equities markets over the medium term.

Well only time will tell in the next couple of days on what sort of pullback we get.

Good Hunting

Bear

Closed WDC

2009-08-05T10:44:00.002+10:00

What a beautiful week we closed our WDC's (Westfields) for 12.25, and made a nice profit. in percentage terms 9.57% for the trade and 11.77% for the portfolio.

Out at the Temple last night

2009-08-05T09:57:00.002+10:00

Sorry folks but the Oracle was out at the Temple (Ryans Bar) in Sydney with the Bear and the Druid and a good mate (the Asp) from down South who is our contact with our wholesaler. Lets just say we sorted out the worlds woes and put trading on the back burner for a while. Back on deck now though

and a great day was had by all

2009-08-04T06:40:00.003+10:00

WOW, all the major indexes up overnight. Just has to bode well for us here in Aus. today. Word is the banks are going to push up fixed mortgage rates even though the Reserve Bank of Aus is saying rates will stay on hold. Gotta make financials the go for a while yet

Another day in beautiful paradise

2009-08-03T16:31:00.001+10:00

What can we say, but life is tough. Our WDC (Westfields) were up again as was our TLS (Telstra). Both on the ASX, our only issue now is when to sell them.

Our next Seminar to introduce CASHFLOW trader Shares 4 Free

2009-08-03T14:49:00.000+10:00

Bankstown Sports Bowling Club
41 NORTHAM AVE BANKSTOWN
On the 11th August 2009
Registration 09:00am for a 09:30am start to finish @ 11:30am
For an introduction to CASHFLOW trader “Shares 4 Free”

Send an email to info@cashflowtrader.net.au if you want to join in

One for the Bear

2009-08-03T10:38:00.001+10:00

Looks like we might be about to take a breather very soon. My mate the bear a contributer to this Blog has been spruking this news for weeks now. He says we are due to roll back a bit and take some profit from the table. After reading some of the other blogs it appears others are finally getting on the bandwagon. With this in mind we might start watching for stocks to come off and then take a grab at a lower price.
the oracle

The Dollar moved Strongly on Friday...

2009-08-03T09:55:00.000+10:00

The dollar sold off strongly on Friday and pushed a number of currencies to longer term support/resistance levels and reversed the intermediate bias in the process. Our members can have a technical look of a number of the currency pairs offered by Cashflow Trader, as we head into the new week and the middle of the 3rd Sales Qtr...

Good Morning and welcom to Monday

2009-08-03T09:23:00.002+10:00

Well start of a new trading week, after selling WBC:AU (westpac on the ASX) last friday we are left with WDC & TLS both doing really well. Looking for a good start to this week and will more than likely be picking up a couple of trades as our Telstrs (TLS) is a zero risk

the oracle

2009-08-02T15:38:00.002+10:00

Just spent a great weekend running a seminar down at our friends motel in Sale Victoria
The princeton motor lodge (www.princetonmotel.com.au)

great people great food good time was had by all

the Oracle

2009-07-31T14:56:00.002+10:00

You can find us on Twitter now at http://twitter.com/Cashflowtrader

the Oracle

ASX up for the day (so far)

2009-07-31T11:53:00.002+10:00

the All ords is up for the day (39.1 points) at midday
as for the ASX 200 it's up (37.1 points)

things are looking good for the weekend guys

the Oracle

Overnight Review

2009-07-31T08:46:00.003+10:00

Another great night on the NYSE with the S&P500 moving forward 1.2 percent to 986.75 at 4pm. Movers and shakers consisted of Motorola rallied 9.4 percent, the most since November, as job cuts helped the biggest U.S. mobile-phone maker report a smaller loss than analysts projected. Mastercard added 3 percent on earnings that topped the average forecast by 11 percent. GE advanced 6.9 percent for its steepest gain since April on speculation new banking rules will let the company keep its finance unit.

Over in Europe we saw much the same with U.K. stocks rising to the highest since January after earnings at BT Group Plc and Rolls-Royce Group Plc topped estimates and a Nationwide Building Society report showed house prices in Britain increased for a third month in July.
BT soared 13 percent after the largest U.K. fixed-line phone company reported net income in the three months through June 30 that beat analysts’ forecasts. Rolls-Royce gained 8.7 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group led a rally in mining companies as metals prices advanced in London.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index added 84.08, or 1.9 percent, to 4,631.61, a 13th day of gains in the last 14 trading days.

The Oracle

The rise of China in the Middle East

2009-07-30T16:34:00.002+10:00

Another one from The daily Reconing Australia

This one by Ben Simpfendorfer

In early 2009, China overtook the United States as the world's largest exporter to the Middle East, having already raced passed the United Kingdom and Germany. It was the first time in over 60-years that the number one ranking had changed. The event marked an important milestone in what is a rapidly strengthening relationship between China and the Middle East.

But it is not Arab-style Wal-Marts who are responsible for the flood of "made-in-China" imports. It is instead individual Arab traders. Many of the traders can be found in Yiwu, a small Chinese city four-hours south of Shanghai. The city claims the world's largest wholesale consumer goods market selling the type of cheap gifts and household goods that sell in low-cost retail stores across the world.

Yiwu receives 200,000 Arab visitors annually. It is a virtual Arab market town with over a dozen Arabic restaurants lining its main street. However, the number of Arab visitors only started rising after 2001. Higher oil prices helped explain the increase, as they left Arab governments, and ultimately, Arab households with more money to spend on consumer goods.

However, visa restrictions were also important. How so? Western governments made it tougher for Arab traders to visit the West after September 2001 even as the Chinese government unofficially relaxed its visa policy. A few years ago, an Egyptian national might have taken 18 days or more to receive a visa to visit the United States. The same Egyptian could receive one to China in less than a day.

The number of Arab visitors to China surged as a result, filling up flights between Dubai and the main Chinese cities of Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing.

The economic crisis has only intensified the trend. It's no wonder. The Middle East's imports from China are still growing, albeit in low single-digit figures, even as the United States imports from China collapse at near twenty percent rates relative to last year's levels. And Chinese manufactures are searching for new markets in the Middle East as a result. It is just one more sign of the change in demand.

Take Yang Linshan, for example, a fabrics manufacturer in the coastal province of Zhejiang. The Middle East now accounts for almost twenty percent of his exports. He is looking to set up a branch office in Dubai. Other manufacturers like Yang are meanwhile scouting for locations in the Middle East to build factories even as production costs at home rise. Egypt, with its low-cost workforce, is a particularly attractive investment destination.

There are other signs of the growing strength in trade relations. Wang Weishang, a local entrepreneur, also from the coastal province of Zhejiang, has set up Asia Business TV, a cable television channel. The channel broadcasts throughout the Middle East via Nilesat. It runs regular English-language promotional spots for Chinese products and services to the Middle East's traders.

It is individual stories such as these that help to underscore the depth of trade relations between China and the Middle East. And while the Middle East's $58 billion worth of purchases from China annually will grab headlines, it is the efforts of individuals like Yang Linshan and Wang Weishang that provide a more complete picture of strengthening economic relations between the two regions.

FOREX NEWS UPDATE

2009-07-30T14:33:00.002+10:00

As reported by Korman Tam 7/29/2009

Risk aversion propped the dollar higher against the majors in Wednesday trading amid a retreat in the global equity markets - with Shanghai's Composite Index plummeting by 5% overnight. Commodities also slumped with gold falling to its lowest level in 2-weeks just above the $927 per ounce level and crude oil sliding to below $64 per barrel. The greenback pushed the euro toward the 1.40-figure and the Swiss franc around the 1.09-handle.

US economic reports released this morning saw durable goods orders decline sharply in June, posting a monthly decline of 2.5% versus a downwardly revised increase of 1.3% from May. The excluding transports durable goods orders improved to 1.1% compared with a downwardly revised 0.8% increase a month prior. The Fed's Beige Book revealed the pace of economic decline had moderated or stabilized at a low level in most districts adding that the manufacturing sector remained subdued but slightly more positive than in the past. The Fed said there was still slack in the labour markets, with most sectors reducing jobs or holding steady and net employment falling.

Meanwhile, NY Fed President Dudley expressed optimism over the economy, saying he expects moderate growth in the second half of this year, albeit considerably slower than in past recoveries. Dudley said "the balance of risks is still tilted toward weakness in growth and employment and not toward higher inflation", suggesting that the Fed will likely maintain low interest rates for some time to come. Lastly, he said that "if the recovery does, in fact, turn out to be lack lustre, the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated and capacity utilization rates unusually low" in the near-term.

Lihir Gold Quarterly Output Jumps 66% on New Mines

2009-07-30T14:23:00.002+10:00

This might be of interest to some of you that follow commodities, just in from Bloomberg

By Jesse Riseborough

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lihir Gold the second-largest gold mining company on the Australian Stock Exchange, said second-quarter output rose 66 percent after buying mines in Australian and Africa.

Production increased to 294,024 ounces in the three months ended June 30, from 177,111 ounces a year earlier, the Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea-based company said today in a statement. That compares with an estimate of 289,000 ounces by RBC Capital Markets.

Lihir, which bought Equigold NL last year to add mines in Australia and the Ivory Coast, is also expanding its namesake Papua New Guinea mine to boost output after gold prices rose in the past eight years. Full-year output is “on track” to be in the previously forecast range of 1 million to 1.2 million ounces after record production in the first half, the company said.

Production will be lower this quarter due to plant maintenance at the Lihir Island mine, it said. Gold sales totaled 322,000 ounces in the quarter at an average price of $907 an ounce, up from $876 an ounce in the previous quarter, the company said.

Lihir rose 1.1 percent to A$2.73 at 12:41 p.m. Sydney time on the exchange. The stock has dropped 9.6 percent this year.

Housing Goes Mad

2009-07-30T13:59:00.001+10:00

I was looking this morning at an email I received from the Daily Reckoning Australia, yes I do read some very left of centre stuff, but that is how you get to hear what others are thinking. And yes it is important as a trader to be abreast of what can make a big difference down the track.
Here is an excerpt of what was in that email.

From Dan Denning at the Old Hat Factory:

--With each passing day it becomes more obvious that Australia is in the grip of a housing dementia. Let the madness and unafforadability multiply!

--House prices were up 3.3% nationally in the second quarter of the year, according to Australian Property Monitors. The group said that the weighted average median house price in the most expensive capital city suburbs was $796,559. In the slightly less expensive suburbs the weighted average median house price was $405,872.

--Ouch.

--Aussie stocks are up as we write, bucking the global trend from yesterday. This comes after a 7% retreat by Chinese stocks in Shanghai and lower stocks in New York. What happened in China? Well, China's benchmark CSI 300 Index was up nearly 93% for the year before yesterday's retreat. China's monetary authorities have ignited a speculative bubble and made noises about reining it in yesterday.

--Bloomberg reports that Chinese stocks, "Plunged amid speculation the central bank is poised to order lenders to set aside larger reserves, Beijing-based Caijing magazine reported today on its Web site. Market News International said Chinese equities fell on speculation regulators will increase a tax on stock trading."

--Yesterday we asked the question of what would make Australia's economy grow in the next twenty years. We return to that question today. The Reserve Bank has said that Aussie banks will have to move cautiously as they repair their balances sheets. This suggests growth through debt may be harder to achieve. The RBA also said that the household sector's twenty year credit binge is over (now that asset prices are returning from orbit). Again, growth through debt is looking dubious as a national survival strategy.

--Let's also assume that the government cannot borrow its way to larger stimulus payments. With lower spending forecast for government, businesses, and households, you begin to wonder if Australia's economy has a home grown engine, or if it will rely on something else, or someone else beyond the borders. If domestic demand falls, that leaves housing as the only industry firing on all cylinders (for now).

--Now you can try building a national economy around the housing industry. But what you get is a nation or mortgage lenders, builders, real estate agents, speculators, and bombastic television presenters. You also get a huge speculative bubble. It's been tried in America and didn't work out so well.

--If not housing, then why not resources? "Over the medium term," said Glenn Stevens earlier this week, "the emergence of China (and other countries such as India) will continue, and will offer opportunities for Australia." This is not news. But what the Governor said next is newsworthy.

--"If commodity prices do stay at their relatively high levels on the back of strong emerging world demand, the mineral extraction sector and all those parts of the Australian economy that service it and feel its flow-on effects, will expand. Other sectors, will, relatively, contract over time."

if you want to know more about The Daily Reckoning Australia then look up there RSS feed you might find it very interesting

The Cashflow trader Oracle

2009-07-30T13:56:00.000+10:00

This blog is dedicated to the world of stock trading. We are open to discussion on anything to do with trading the markets anywhere around the planet.

the Cashflow trader Oracle